Gold ended last week at $3,037.34, with highs of $3,167.75 and lows near $3,015.78. On the surface, it was a bearish close—but under the hood, a powerful swing buy opportunity is taking shape.

The Bearish Shooting Star… or Just a Breather?

On the weekly timeframe, gold printed a shooting star candlestick, typically a bearish reversal signal. But if you know how to read the macro landscape, you’ll see this as a breather, not a breakdown.

Gold surged to new highs, and now it's cooling off. Here’s why that matters now more than ever...

Two Major Catalysts: April 9 & 10

1. April 9 – FOMC Minutes
2. This will reveal the tone of the Federal Reserve: is there growing concern about inflation? Are some members shifting toward a pause or cuts later in 2025?
3. Hawkish tone = gold dips deeper (great buy zone setup)
4. Dovish tone = gold may bounce ahead of CPI
5. April 10 – CPI Report
6. CPI is the kingmaker. If inflation cools, expect a softer USD and bullish gold. If it spikes, gold could test deeper support before bouncing.

NFP Beat + Higher Unemployment = Mixed Signals

Last Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report added complexity:

1. Actual: 228K vs. 135K forecast (bullish USD)
2. But Unemployment: rose to 4.2% (bearish for hawkish Fed policy)

This kind of mixed data tends to support gold in the medium term as the Fed walks a fine line between growth and inflation.

Swing Trade Zones for April 6–11

Trade Logic: Wait for reaction to FOMC and CPI. If price dips into the buy zone post-news, this is the high-probability swing trade to ride.

Chart Checklist for the Setup

1. Weekly shooting star marked on XAU/USD chart
2. Fibonacci retracement from last week’s low to high
3. Buy and TP zones visually marked
4. Watch MACD and RSI divergence as confirmation

The Pipsoclock team wishes you a profitable trading week ahead!

Ifeanyi Uche

For the Pipsoclock Team