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Gold Weekly Forecast Summary for January 29-February 2, 2024

Gold experienced a relatively stable week amid conflicting factors. While the US Dollar gained from positive economic data, geopolitical tensions provided support to Gold. The upcoming week holds key events such as the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and US jobs data, likely influencing Gold's valuation.

Economic Calendar: All time is GMT.

MONDAY, JANUARY 29
N/A
EUR German Buba Monthly Report
REPORT
TUESDAY, JANUARY 30
00:30
JPY Unemployment Rate(Dec)
- - Consensus: 2.5%. Previous: 2.5%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Dec)
- - Consensus: -0.7%. Previous: 2%
07:30
EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: 0%. Previous: -0.1%
09:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)(Q4)
- - Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.3%
09:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 3.1%. Previous: 3.3%
10:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: 0.1%
10:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: 0%. Previous: 0.1%
10:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)(Q4) PREL
- - - Previous: -0.8%
10:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: -0.2%. Previous: -0.4%
10:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: -0.3%. Previous: -0.1%
11:00
EUR Business Climate(Jan)
- - - Previous: -0.45
11:00
EUR Consumer Confidence(Jan)
- - Consensus: -16.1. Previous: -16.1
11:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: 0%. Previous: 0%
11:00
EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: -0.1%. Previous: -0.1%
11:00
EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator(Jan)
- - Consensus: 96.2. Previous: 96.4
15:00
USD Housing Price Index (MoM)(Nov)
- - - Previous: 0.3%
16:00
USD JOLTS Job Openings(Dec)
- - Consensus: 8.75M. Previous: 8.79M
16:00
USD Consumer Confidence(Jan)
- - - -
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31
00:50
JPY Retail Trade (YoY)(Dec)
- - Consensus: 4.7%. Previous: 5.3%
00:50
JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)(Dec)
- - - Previous: 1%
00:50
JPY Large Retailer Sales(Dec)
- - - Previous: 5%
01:30
AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)(Q4)
- - Consensus: 0.9%. Previous: 1.2%
01:30
AUD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)(Q4)
- - Consensus: 0.8%. Previous: 1.2%
01:30
AUD Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Dec)
- - Consensus: 3.7%. Previous: 4.3%
01:30
AUD RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY)(Q4)
- - Consensus: 4.4%. Previous: 5.2%
01:30
AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Q4)
- - Consensus: 4.3%. Previous: 5.4%
02:00
CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - - Previous: 50.4
02:00
CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 49.3. Previous: 49
08:00
EUR Retail Sales (YoY)(Dec)
- - - Previous: -2.4%
08:00
EUR Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec)
- - Consensus: 0.8%. Previous: -2.5%
08:30
CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)(Dec)
- - - Previous: 0.7%
08:45
EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - - Previous: 4.1%
09:55
EUR Unemployment Change(Jan)
- - Consensus: 10K. Previous: 5K
09:55
EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.(Jan)
- - Consensus: 5.9%. Previous: 5.9%
10:00
CHF ZEW Survey – Expectations(Jan)
- - - Previous: -23.7
11:30
EUR 10-y Bond Auction
- - - Previous: 2.19%
14:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 3.4%. Previous: 3.8%
14:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - - Previous: 3.7%
14:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 0%. Previous: 0.2%
14:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.1%
14:15
USD ADP Employment Change(Jan)
- - Consensus: 135K. Previous: 164K
14:30
CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)(Nov)
- - Consensus: 0.1%. Previous: 0%
14:30
USD Employment Cost Index(Q4)
- - Consensus: 1%. Previous: 1.1%
15:45
USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index(Jan)
- - Consensus: 48. Previous: 46.9
20:00
USD Fed Monetary Policy Statement
REPORT
20:00
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision
- - Consensus: 5.5%. Previous: 5.5%
20:30
USD FOMC Press Conference
SPEECH
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 1
01:00
EUR EU leaders summit
ALL DAY
01:30
AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)(Q4)
- - - Previous: -1
01:30
AUD Building Permits (MoM)(Dec)
- - Consensus: 2%. Previous: 1.6%
02:45
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 50.5. Previous: 50.8
09:15
EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 48. Previous: 46.2
09:45
EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 47.3. Previous: 45.3
09:55
EUR HCOB Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 45.4. Previous: 45.4
11:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - - Previous: 0.6%
11:00
EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 0.7%. Previous: 0.5%
11:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Jan) PREL
- - - Previous: 0.2%
11:00
EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 3.2%. Previous: 3.4%
11:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan) PREL
- - Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 2.9%
11:00
EUR Unemployment Rate(Dec)
- - Consensus: 6.4%. Previous: 6.4%
11:00
EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Jan) PREL
- - - Previous: 0.5%
13:00
GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike
- - Consensus: 2. Previous: 3
13:00
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
- - Consensus: 5.25%. Previous: 5.25%
13:00
GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Cut
- - Consensus: 0. Previous: 0
13:00
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility
- - - -
13:00
GBP Monetary Policy Report
REPORT
13:00
GBP BoE Monetary Policy Report
REPORT
13:00
GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged
- - Consensus: 8. Previous: 6
13:00
GBP BoE Minutes
REPORT
13:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts(Jan)
- - - Previous: 34.817K
13:30
GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech
SPEECH
14:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims(Jan 26)
- - Consensus: 210K. Previous: 214K
14:30
USD Unit Labor Costs(Q4) PREL
- - - Previous: -1.2%
14:30
USD Nonfarm Productivity(Q4) PREL
- - Consensus: 2.4%. Previous: 5.2%
15:30
CAD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - - Previous: 45.4
16:00
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Jan)
- - - Previous: 45.2
16:00
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI(Jan)
- - Consensus: 47.3. Previous: 47.4
16:00
USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Jan)
- - - Previous: 47.1
16:00
USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Jan)
- - - Previous: 48.1
22:00
NZD ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence(Dec)
- - - Previous: 93.1
22:45
NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)(Dec)
- - - Previous: -10.6%
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 2
01:30
AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)(Q4)
- - - Previous: 3.8%
14:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Jan)
- - Consensus: 0.3%. Previous: 0.4%
14:30
USD Labor Force Participation Rate(Jan)
- - - Previous: 62.5%
14:30
USD U6 Underemployment Rate(Jan)
- - - Previous: 7.1%
14:30
USD Nonfarm Payrolls(Jan)
- - Consensus: 173K. Previous: 216K
14:30
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Jan)
- - Consensus: 4.1%. Previous: 4.1%
14:30
USD Unemployment Rate(Jan)
- - Consensus: 3.8%. Previous: 3.7%
16:00
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Jan)
- - Consensus: 78.8. Previous: 78.8
16:00
USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(Jan)
- - - Previous: 2.8%
16:00
USD Factory Orders (MoM)(Dec)
- - Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 2.6%

 

Summary:

  • Gold moved sideways initially, benefiting from improved risk sentiment and a rally in global equity indexes triggered by China's potential equity market rescue.
  • S&P Global PMI data indicated an expanding US private sector, causing a rise in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield and a subsequent drop in XAU/USD.
  • Geopolitical tensions, including an incident involving Iran-backed rebels targeting US-owned ships, helped Gold stabilize.
  • The US GDP exceeded expectations, boosting the USD initially, but retreating US yields allowed Gold to find support.
  • The upcoming week features key events: Federal Reserve policy meeting, JOLTS Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' January jobs report.

Key Risk Events Next Week:

  • Federal Reserve expected to maintain the policy rate; market eyes any signals on rate changes in March.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics to release January jobs report, with focus on Nonfarm Payrolls, Labor Force Participation Rate, and wage inflation figures.

Technical Outlook:

  • RSI on the daily chart indicates a lack of directional momentum.
  • Key support at $2,000; a break below may lead to extended declines to $1,980 and $1,960.
  • Resistance at $2,030 and $2,040; a daily close above $2,040 could trigger a move towards $2,060.

This summary is based on analysis from Fxstreet.com, and credit is given to the source.

Note: Market movements are subject to change based on unforeseen events, and it's advisable to stay updated with real-time information.


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