Weekly Forex and Commodities Analysis and Trade Recommendations (Feb 5-9, 2024)

Dear Pipstars,

The past week was a very interesting and highly volatile one. There were high impact events from both the US and the UK. FOMC report, NFP and Unemployment rate report, BOE rate decision, ad other inflation data, etc. drove the markets wild, helping traders make and lose money. On which divide did you find yourself?

Following is the schedule of events from the Economic Calendar from Fxstreet.com for the new week February 5 to 9, 2024.
We will Use the provided information in the calendar to analyze what to expect during the week in such a manner all categories of traders from beginners to advanced traders will find it useful. We will also make possible trade recommendations for Gold, GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, etc.

All time is GMT

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 5

00:00
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY)(Jan)
- - - Previous: 5.2%
00:00
USD Fed's Chair Powell speech
SPEECH
00:30
AUD Trade Balance (MoM)(Jan)
- - - Previous: 11,437M
00:30
AUD Imports (MoM)(Jan)
- - - Previous: -7.9%
00:30
AUD Exports (MoM)(Jan)
- - - Previous: 1.7%
01:45
CNY Caixin Services PMI(Jan)
- - - Previous: 52.9
07:00
EUR Trade Balance s.a.(Dec)
- - Forecast: €18.8B. Previous: €20.4B
08:15
EUR HCOB Services PMI(Jan)
- - Forecast: 52.1. Previous: 51.5
08:55
EUR HCOB Services PMI(Jan)
- - Forecast: 47.6. Previous: 47.6
08:55
EUR HCOB Composite PMI(Jan)
- - Forecast: 47.1. Previous: 47.1
09:00
EUR HCOB Composite PMI(Jan)
- - Forecast: 47.9. Previous: 47.9
09:30
EUR Sentix Investor Confidence(Feb)
- - - Previous: -15.8
10:00
EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)(Dec)
- - Forecast: -10.5%. Previous: -8.8%
10:00
EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)(Dec)
- - Forecast: -0.8%. Previous: -0.3%
14:45
USD S&P Global Composite PMI(Jan)
- - - Previous: 52.3
15:00
USD ISM Services New Orders Index(Jan)
- - - Previous: 52.8
15:00
USD ISM Services Prices Paid(Jan)
- - - Previous: 57.4
15:00
USD ISM Services Employment Index(Jan)
- - - Previous: 43.3
15:00
USD ISM Services PMI(Jan)
- - Forecast: 52. Previous: 50.6
19:00
USD Loan Officer Survey(Q4)
REPORT
19:00
USD Fed's Bostic speech
SPEECH
23:30
JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)(Dec)
- - - Previous: 0.2%

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 6

00:01
GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)(Jan)
- - - Previous: 1.9%
00:30
AUD Retail Sales (QoQ)(Q4)
- - - Previous: 0.2%
00:30
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
REPORT
03:30
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
- - Forecast: 4.35% . Previous: 4.35%
03:30
AUD RBA Rate Statement
REPORT
04:30
AUD RBA Press Conference
SPEECH
07:00
EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)(Dec)
- - - Previous: -4.4%
07:00
EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Dec)
- - Forecast: 0%. Previous: 0.3%
10:00
EUR Retail Sales (YoY)(Dec)
- - Forecast: -1.1%. Previous: -1.1%
10:00
EUR Retail Sales (MoM)(Dec)
- - Forecast: -1%. Previous: -0.3%
15:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index(Jan)
- - - Previous: 43.7
15:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a(Jan)
- - - Previous: 56.3
17:00
USD Fed's Mester speech
SPEECH
17:45
CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech
SPEECH
21:45
NZD Participation Rate(Q4)
- - Forecast: 72%. Previous: 72%
21:45
NZD Unemployment Rate(Q4)
- - Forecast: 4.3%. Previous: 3.9%
21:45
NZD Labour Cost Index (QoQ)(Q4)
- - Forecast: 0.8%. Previous: 0.8%
21:45
NZD Employment Change(Q4)
- - Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: -0.2%
22:00
AUD AiG Industry Index(Dec)
- - - Previous: -22.4

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7

07:00
EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Dec)
- - Forecast: -0.2%. Previous: -0.7%
07:00
EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)(Dec)
- - - Previous: -4.8%
16:00
USD Fed's Kugler speech
SPEECH
17:30
USD Fed's Barkin speech
SPEECH
18:30
CAD BoC Summary of Deliberations
REPORT
19:00
USD Fed's Bowman speech
SPEECH
23:50
JPY Current Account n.s.a.(Dec)
- - Forecast: ¥1,018.9B. Previous: ¥1,925.6B

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 8

01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan)
- - Forecast: 0.4%. Previous: 0.1%
01:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)(Jan)
- - Forecast: -2.6%. Previous: -2.7%
01:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Jan)
- - Forecast: -0.5%. Previous: -0.3%
02:00
NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)(Q1)
- - - Previous: 2.76%
09:00
EUR Economic Bulletin
REPORT
13:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims(Feb 2)
- - Forecast: 220K. Previous: 224K
14:15
EUR ECB's Elderson speech
SPEECH
15:00
GBP BoE's Mann speech
SPEECH
15:30
EUR ECB's Lane speech
SPEECH
17:05
USD Fed's Barkin speech
SPEECH
22:30
AUD RBA Governor Bullock speech
SPEECH

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 9
07:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(Jan)
- - Forecast: -0.2%. Previous: -0.2%
07:00
EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(Jan)
- - Forecast: 3.1%. Previous: 3.1%
13:30
CAD Average Hourly Wages (YoY)(Jan)
- - - Previous: 5.7%
13:30
CAD Unemployment Rate(Jan)
- - Forecast: 5.9%. Previous: 5.8%
13:30
CAD Net Change in Employment(Jan)
- - Forecast: 15K. Previous: 0.1K
16:00
USD Fed Monetary Policy Report

 

Monday, February 5:

AUD: The TD Securities Inflation (YoY) for January may impact the Australian Dollar. Beginners should monitor this for potential effects on inflation-related trades. Considering the positive inflation trend in Australia, advanced traders may consider a long position on AUDUSD.

USD: Fed Chair Powell's midnight speech might influence USD sentiments, offering advanced traders insights into potential policy directions. Given the uncertainty, it is advisable for both beginners and advanced traders to observe market reactions before taking significant positions.

EUR: Eurozone's Trade Balance and PMI indices are crucial. Advanced traders can assess the Composite PMI for Euro trading strategies. Considering the Eurozone's positive economic indicators, a long position on EURUSD could be considered.

USD: The ISM Services PMI for January is essential for USD traders. All traders should consider its impact on the US dollar. Depending on the actual data, a sell position on USDCHF could be considered if the PMI indicates weakness in the services sector.

Tuesday, February 6:

AUD: RBA's Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement can affect the Australian Dollar. Beginners should exercise caution during potential volatility. Given the expected rate stability, traders may consider a hold position on AUDUSD.

EUR: Retail Sales data for December could influence the Euro. All traders should keep an eye on these figures. If retail sales show positive growth, a buy position on EURUSD might be considered.

CAD: The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index will provide insights into the Canadian economy. All traders should consider its impact, especially those involved with the Canadian Dollar. A positive Ivey PMI may lead to a buy position on USDCAD.

Wednesday, February 7:

EUR: Industrial Production data for December may impact the Euro. Traders should assess the figures for potential trading opportunities. If industrial production shows growth, a buy position on EURUSD could be considered.

USD: Speeches by various Fed officials may influence market sentiments. Traders should be attentive to any hints shared during these speeches. Given the uncertainty, it is advisable to wait for clear signals before taking significant positions.

CAD: The Bank of Canada's Summary of Deliberations will be released. Traders, particularly those trading the Canadian Dollar, should consider the potential impact. Depending on the summary, a cautious approach might be warranted for CAD pairs until market reactions are clear.

Thursday, February 8:

CNY: Various Chinese economic indicators may influence commodities. Traders, especially those involved in commodities trading, should be vigilant. Depending on the Chinese economic indicators, gold traders may consider adjusting positions based on commodity market reactions.

USD: Initial Jobless Claims and speeches by ECB and BoE officials may impact the USD and relevant currencies. All traders should stay informed about these events. Depending on the data and speeches, adjustments to USD positions might be necessary.

Friday, February 9:

EUR: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices data for January may impact the Euro. Traders should analyze the figures for potential trading opportunities. Depending on the inflation data, a cautious approach may be warranted for EUR pairs until market reactions are clear.

CAD: Employment-related data will be released. Traders involved in the Canadian Dollar should consider the potential market impact. A positive employment report may lead to a buy position on USDCAD.

USD: The Fed's Monetary Policy Report may influence market sentiments. Traders should be attentive to any insights provided in the report. Given the potential impact of the report, a wait-and-see approach is recommended for USD pairs until the report is released.

Trade Recommendations:

Gold: Monitor inflation-related indicators and geopolitical events for potential impact on Gold prices. Consider long positions if inflation concerns rise.

Currency Pairs:

AUDUSD: Depending on RBA decisions and economic data, consider a hold position or buy if positive trends continue.
GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY: Depending on economic data, consider buy or sell positions accordingly.
Traders, irrespective of experience level, should use risk management strategies, stay informed about global events, and adapt strategies based on real-time information.

These recommendations are subject to market conditions.